"The current PV subsidies are still there, but the profit margin of power station investors is not large." Mr. Zhu, a senior executive of a photovoltaic module company, was very impressed with the subsidies for photovoltaic power plants. At the beginning of February, the relevant departments once again promulgated a new policy on the integration of photovoltaic buildings. The substantial reduction in the amount of subsidies has caused many concerns about the PV market. The "First Financial Daily" learned that according to the amount of subsidies issued by the New Deal, the amount of subsidies in China fell by about 40% in two years.
Subsidies fell sharply
The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development recently launched the “2011 Solar Energy Photovoltaic Building Application Demonstration Projectâ€, and the total installed capacity of each province does not exceed 10 MW in principle. If calculated according to 32 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, this policy will start a 320 MW project.
Zhao Yuwen, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, predicted that China's installed capacity in 2011 is estimated to be between 500 MW and 700 MW. Assuming that the new photovoltaic construction project was completed in the same year, it will account for 45% of China's new installed capacity.
Compared with the similar policies in 2009 and 2010, this year's subsidy policy has not changed much, but the actual subsidy rate has dropped rapidly.
In 2009, China's subsidy standard for building materials and other photovoltaic building integration projects is no more than 20 yuan / watt, the 2010 subsidy ceiling is 17 yuan / watt.
In 2011, the new policy pointed out that for key equipment such as crystalline silicon components, grid-connected inverters and energy storage lead-acid batteries, 50% of the supply price of the bid-winning agreement will be subsidized, and other costs such as project installation and construction of the demonstration project will be provided. Then set the standard at 6 yuan per watt.
“In the past two years, the project installation cost subsidy has not been separately calculated.†Zou Hui, a researcher at Orient Securities, said. Mr. Zhu pointed out that according to the current price of 156 square millimeters of PV modules, the subsidy for photovoltaic projects given by the country this year is about 12 yuan / watt (50% of 12 yuan / watt, plus engineering subsidies of 6 yuan) / watt), which is a 40% decline compared to 2009.
Mr. Zhu said that the decline in the amount of subsidies indicates that the cost of the industrial chain is also constantly decreasing. In 2009, the price of components was about 15 yuan / watt or more, 2010 and 2009 are almost the same, so after the decline in subsidies in 2011, component prices will continue to dive.
Profit problem
In November 2010, the Ministry of Finance cancelled a total of 54 megawatts and 39 Golden Sun projects, and well-known companies such as Suntech Power, Artus and BP were listed.
"I will give you an account. At present, the investment amount of a photovoltaic power station project is about 28 yuan / watt, even if the local and the country give a subsidy of 18 yuan / watt, the enterprise will stick 10 yuan / watt to build. 1 watt battery for 1 year It takes 10 years to generate electricity, and it takes 10 years to recover the cost. It is better to build a power station than to sell batteries. A 50 MW battery production line may be built in one year, and it can be returned and profitable in two to three years. It can explain why many projects have to be put on hold for a long time even if they have subsidies." Mr. Zhu told reporters.
The test of photovoltaic power plants now comes from several aspects: First, although the state has subsidies, local government subsidies are difficult to put in place. In addition to Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places have certain financial support, many local governments are difficult to implement supporting subsidies.
Second, the price of PV modules, which account for 50% of the cost of power station investment, may be difficult to drop rapidly. For every 1% increase in conversion efficiency of PV modules, the price may be reduced by about 10%. However, in the past two years, many PV module factories have been unable to significantly increase their conversion efficiency. As a result, the extent of component price cuts may not be as fast as government subsidies. In this way, it is not easy for PV investors to make money.
In addition, the overseas market is better, which also makes PV module companies reluctant to cut prices.
In Germany, although the government reduced the subsidy by about 20% in 2010, the roof power generation subsidy of 30 kW to 100 kW is still as high as 0.26 euros/kWh to 0.29 euros/kWh, which is higher than the subsidy of China. A big cut.
Mr. Liu, the person in charge of the construction of photovoltaic power station, said that although many domestic photovoltaic cell factories have been shortlisted for the procurement list of power station projects, they can use the words “no goods†or “no time to do†to plug them down. Transfer the goods to Germany and other places, after all, the price there is higher than the local purchase price in China.
Mr. Zhu also stressed that building photovoltaic power plants in China is not entirely unprofitable. Many subsidized PV power plant projects are mainly “self-use†by PV manufacturers. Assume that the electricity price costs about 1 yuan / kWh, if the peak summer electricity price reaches 1.9 yuan / kWh, so that power station investors will save a lot of electricity. However, if the photovoltaic power station is sold to the grid at a desulfurization price of about 0.4 yuan/kWh, it may lose money.
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