Today's point of view
Today, the prices of major domestic steel products rose most, but in the afternoon, with the black giants profiting away, the market experienced a small dip, resulting in poor trading of high-end stocks. In the near future, environmental protection and production restrictions, Hebei, Shandong, more power, power supply increased; although the demand side is not strong, but better than expected. Overall, the current policy is loose, social stocks are at a low level, the business mentality is more optimistic, and the funds are relatively plentiful. It is expected that the infrastructure will be strengthened in the second half of the year, supply and demand will maintain a relatively tight balance, and support for the steel price center will be given to the market. Good expectations, short-term steel prices are expected to remain high and volatile.
Macro hotspot
1. [Agricultural products futures rose sharply in the end, double-focus closed down] Beans rose 5%, beans rose nearly 4%, PVC, Shanghai lead, soybean meal, vegetable 粕 rose more than 2%, Shanghai nickel, rubber, vegetables Seeds rose more than 1%, Zhengyou, corn, Shanghai zinc, palm, soybean oil, Zheng coal, Shanghai tin, plastic, Shanghai copper, manganese silicon, white sugar, etc. closed up. Coke, ferrosilicon closed down 2%, apple, coking coal, crude oil, fuel oil, late rice, hot coil fell more than 1%, Zheng alcohol, PTA, iron ore, Zheng cotton, glass, Shanghai gold, cotton yarn, eggs, asphalt, Shanghai Silver, thread, Shanghai aluminum and so on closed down.
2, [three major indexes steadily descending in the afternoon, individual stocks fell, the cotton sector bucked the trend]
The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2474.07 points, down 1.27%, with a turnover of 140 billion.
The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8499.22 points, down 2.02%, with a turnover of 164.5 billion.
The GEM closed at 1447.76 points, down 2.14%, with a turnover of 47.9 billion.
3. [Hangzhou eight departments jointly rectify the real estate market to focus on speculative real estate speculation, false information release and illegal and illegal behavior of housing enterprises and intermediaries] Recently, Hangzhou Municipal Housing and Housing Management Bureau jointly issued eight departments including market supervision, public security and price. "Notice on Launching Special Actions to Combat Infringement of the Interests of the Masses and Governing the Real Estate Market Chaos", focusing on cracking down on speculative real estate speculation, false information and false listings, and controlling illegal and illegal behaviors of real estate development enterprises and intermediary enterprises, further rectifying and Standardize the order of the real estate market, improve the supervision mechanism of the real estate market, and earnestly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the people.
4. [National Information Center Researcher: Estimated GDP growth of 6.7% in the second half of the year] Zou Yunhan, Researcher of the National Information Center: Looking forward to the second half of the year, the three major demand will maintain a steady growth trend, and the steady development of the economic operation will continue It is estimated that GDP will increase by 6.7% in the second half of the year. Among them, fixed asset investment increased by 6.2% year-on-year, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 9.5% year-on-year, and exports increased by 8% (US dollar-denominated). In addition, China's price level has remained stable overall. It is expected that the CPI will increase by about 1.8% in the second half of the year, and the PPI will increase by about 2.8%. Macroeconomic policies will remain stable. Pre-adjust and fine-tune and direction-control according to changes in the situation, maintain a moderate level of social financing and liquidity, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment to support the development of the real economy.
Market today
Raw material
Billet: The price of the national billet market is getting higher. Today, Jiangsu steel billet rose 20 yuan / ton, other regions temporarily stabilized. Today, the steel market is getting stronger and stronger, the billet is generally sold, the downstream finished product price is higher, the Tangshan billet is straightforward, the warehouse stock is around 3970, and the tax-included part of the warehouse is sold. The steel futures fluctuate at a high level, and the downstream finished products are sold in general. The overall situation is generally weak.
Domestic mines: Some market prices of domestically produced main producing areas increased slightly. The price of North China Kuancheng rose by RMB 10/ton, the price of Zhangping rose by RMB 1 yuan, the price of Northeast Chaoyang, Jianping and Beipiao rose by RMB 10/ton, and the price of Jilin Tonghua rose by RMB 20/ton. Specifically, North China-Tangshan 66% dry-based tax-included cash factory 670-680 yuan / ton, Qianxi 66% dry-based tax-included cash out of 660-670 yuan / ton, Qian'an 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 680-690 yuan / ton; Zunhua 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 665-675 yuan / ton; Kuancheng 65% dry basis tax-included cash factory 600 yuan / ton; Zhangping 63.5% vanadium titanium powder dry basis including tax Cash factory 520 yuan / ton
Imported mines: The spot market price of imported mines is basically stable compared with yesterday, and the market activity is significantly lower than yesterday. The following are some port transactions: Caofeidian Port PB powder 505 yuan / ton, super special powder 310 yuan / ton; Jingtang Port Newman powder 530 yuan / ton, PB powder 505 yuan / ton, Mike powder 495 yuan / ton; Tianjin Port Super special powder 325 yuan / ton; Rizhao Port PB powder 497 yuan / ton, mixed powder 375 yuan / ton, super special powder 297 yuan / ton. The quotation of traders this morning was basically stable compared with yesterday. Individual traders are interested in shipping, and the quotation is slightly reduced. Steel mills purchase on demand and intend to maintain inventory. Today, Tangshan suddenly limited production, demanding from 10:00 to 9:00 on the 8th, the steel enterprise sintering machine, shaft furnace stopped production of 50%, the production of 50% sintering machine pressure reduction damper 20%. According to the survey, the limited production time is shorter, and the inventory of finished sinter of most steel mills in Tangshan is relatively abundant, and it is expected that there will be no impact on production.
Steel spot
Construction steel: Today's domestic construction steel prices have risen steadily. In terms of specific prices, the average price of 25 major cities nationwide was 4,398 yuan/ton, up by 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with the northeast region rising slightly, and the east, south, central, southwest and northwest regions rising steadily. The North China region is mainly stable. In concrete terms, today's demand performance is not good. In the late afternoon, the snail rebounded slightly, and the spot transaction was slightly heavy. Although prices in some regions have risen slightly, the overall transaction performance is average. At present, the situation of weak supply and demand is difficult to change in the short term, and the news of environmental protection and production restriction has become increasingly fierce, making market resources increasingly tense. On the whole, the business mentality is more cautious and optimistic. It is expected that the domestic construction steel prices will be adjusted to a narrow range tomorrow.
Hot-rolled coils: Today's hot rolling prices in 24 major cities nationwide fluctuated within a narrow range. The average price of 3.0 hot-rolled coils was 4382 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. The average national price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils was 4325 yuan/ton. , unchanged from the previous trading day. Today's futures market fell slightly, the market wait-and-see sentiment aggravated, and some market prices fell slightly. At present, the overall market demand is weak, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the overall market turnover is not good. However, the market inventory resources are relatively low, coupled with the support of costs, businesses are not willing to sell too low. In addition, the price of Tangshan billet market remained stable today, and the current price of carbon billet is 3,900 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the hot-rolled market will fluctuate tomorrow.
Medium and heavy plate: Today, the domestic plate market price consolidation has become stronger. The average price of 20mm medium and heavy plate in 23 major cities nationwide is 4445 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today's billet prices are generally stable, while the futures market is weak in the afternoon, so the overall market price is cautious, and the operation is mostly based on shipments. In the short-term, there is no pressure on steel companies, so the spot price still maintains a very good attitude, while the spot high position is slightly weak, so it is expected that the domestic plate market price will be expected to run tomorrow.
Cold-rolled coils: Today's national cold-rolled prices are mainly up. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4,796 yuan / ton, an increase of 9 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day. The main market price: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coil plate offer 4770 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4860 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4640 yuan / ton. Market: Although the black commodity futures fell today, the overall market mentality is still acceptable, and the price is temporarily stable. In addition, the market transactions in recent days have improved compared with last week, and some regions have also raised prices appropriately. However, it is still in the off-season of demand, and the business mentality is still more cautious. Overall, the market price of cold rolled spot is expected to continue to fluctuate and stabilize tomorrow.
Steel: Today, the domestic steel market price consolidation has become stronger, and the average price of Gongjiao and H-beam has increased by 10-20 yuan/ton. Specifically, Tangshan's early-stage steelworker's trough rose 10-20 yuan/ton, and the overall transaction was slowed down compared to yesterday's. At present, the overall operating rate of steel mills has increased significantly, and the inventory has increased slightly. The price of East China profiles has stabilized and strengthened, and the spot price has continued to rise slightly by RMB 10-20/ton. At present, steel companies continue to be bullish to promote the accumulation of spot costs, while the transaction has been released under the stimulus of strong prices, but merchants are more cautious about the risk of higher, so there is a certain cash out of shipping. The prices of South China profiles are basically stable. Although the current market resources are low and the prices of steel mills continue to rise, due to poor transactions, the business mentality is cautious and the price is difficult to extend the gains. On the whole, as the spot price continues to rise, the high-level risk is gradually revealed, and the market operation is expected to be dominated by shipments. It is expected that the domestic steel market price will be consolidating at a high level tomorrow.
Steel pipe: Domestic pipe prices continued to rise on the 8th. In terms of varieties, the average price of welded pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 4553 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the average price of galvanized pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 5269 yuan/ton, which is higher than the previous trading day. 15 yuan / ton; seamless pipe 108 * 4.5mm national average price of 5345 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day price rose 24 yuan / ton. Today, the prices of pipe materials in mainstream cities nationwide have risen. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, the price of Ruifeng Steel is temporarily stabilized today, and domestic mainstream manufacturers are also temporarily on the sidelines. According to the market, today's market shipments have improved, and the overall mentality is warmer in the near future. In addition, according to the feedback from traders, not only the inventory of the factory is low, but the market inventory is also at a relatively low level. Most traders still focus on fast-forward and fast-moving. On the whole, it is expected that the short-term domestic welded pipe and galvanized pipe prices will continue to rise, but the range will be narrowed. In terms of seamless pipes, Shandong tube billets continued to rise by RMB 10/ton today, and Jiangsu billet prices rose by RMB 20-40/ton. The factory price of seamless pipes of Linyi Pipe Factory rose by RMB 50/ton today, and the base price of the factory reached RMB 5050/ Ton. According to the author's understanding, the orders of the factory in the near future are in good condition, and the inventory resources are tight, and some market manufacturers are also in short supply. In general, the price of seamless pipes has stabilized and strengthened recently.
Futures: Today's domestic black commodity futures, in addition to coking coal to make up, coke, iron ore, hot coil fell more than 1%, the period screw has no major changes compared to yesterday, specifically: the futures market black is pulled up after the increase in raw materials The bulls have profited and the coke has been forced to resolve in recent months, and the funds on the ore are relatively cautious. After the finished product was pulled high, it suffered short-selling. After all, since the July, the increase of 400 yuan has not changed significantly, and the pressure to continue to increase is much higher. Recently, environmental protection and production restrictions, Hebei, Shandong, more power, the supply is affected; the current demand is not strong, but better than expected; and the policy is loose, the infrastructure will be strengthened in the second half of the year, supply and demand will remain relatively Tight balance, support for the steel product price center, and give the market good expectations. Short-term attention to the high-level shocks to release the pressure of profit-taking, as well as the persistence of short-selling pressure, is expected to maintain a strong shock city. In operation, the ore is up more than 1901 and is supported by 500; the thread 1901 is more than 4000, and the hot roll is more than 1901; the short-term trading is mainly in the day.
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