China's economic growth in July-September hit a high point in the year. Some people speculated that the economic downturn in the first half of the year has ended.
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, but was mainly driven by investment rather than domestic demand that the government wanted to see. Analysts welcome China's economic recovery, but many, if not everyone, are worried about the sustainability of this round of rebound.
The following is a summary of the analyst's point of view:
Analysts at UniCredit said the Chinese economy is picking up this summer, but the key question is whether the next step will remain kinetic. They expressed doubts that the third quarter was a turning point in the Chinese economy's entry into a strong and sustainable recovery track. The analysts said that the monthly industrial added value and retail sales announced today were lower than last month, and the Bureau of Statistics also acknowledged that the growth rate in September has fallen back. This may be the initial evidence that the recovery is difficult to sustain. Although the current stimulus measures can provide some support for the growth of this quarter and the next quarter, the overall growth trend is still downward, there are both cyclical and structural factors.
Standard Bank analyst Steve Barrow said that although the third quarter performed well, the latest data is not so encouraging. The data in September was not too strong, and the National Bureau of Statistics admitted that the economic growth rate in the month fell. The fourth quarter is likely to continue this slowdown, and GDP growth may fall again.
Danish Bank also questioned the persistence of China's economic rebound. The bank said that China's current economic growth rate is higher than its potential level (the bank is expected to be around 8%); because there is no large output gap, the pace of economic recovery is expected to be slow. As the influence of the government's small-scale stimulus policies begins to weaken, the economic growth rate is expected to start to slow down from the beginning of next year (the growth rate will peak in the first quarter of next year). If the growth rate is slower than it is now, the Chinese government may be forced to tighten monetary policy.
Nomura pointed out that the prospects for many indicators of actual economic activity in China have become uncertain. Nomura said that the actual activity index has weakened. The industrial growth rate in September fell to 10.2% from 10.4% in August, in line with market expectations. The growth rate of fixed asset investment fell from 20.3% in August to 20.2%, slightly lower. Expected by the market. Retail sales in September increased by 13.3% year-on-year, lower than expected and lower than 13.4% in August.
Marc Ostwald, strategist at Monument Securities, said that China released its GDP data for only 10 working days after the end of the third quarter. China is a big country with a population of 1.3 billion. In this case, questioning its data. Accuracy makes sense.
From the comments of the above analysts, the GDP performance is quite good. It must be that the old developed countries are far from being able to match this year, but the domestic demand has not improved, and the next few quarters will be insufficient.
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, but was mainly driven by investment rather than domestic demand that the government wanted to see. Analysts welcome China's economic recovery, but many, if not everyone, are worried about the sustainability of this round of rebound.
The following is a summary of the analyst's point of view:
Analysts at UniCredit said the Chinese economy is picking up this summer, but the key question is whether the next step will remain kinetic. They expressed doubts that the third quarter was a turning point in the Chinese economy's entry into a strong and sustainable recovery track. The analysts said that the monthly industrial added value and retail sales announced today were lower than last month, and the Bureau of Statistics also acknowledged that the growth rate in September has fallen back. This may be the initial evidence that the recovery is difficult to sustain. Although the current stimulus measures can provide some support for the growth of this quarter and the next quarter, the overall growth trend is still downward, there are both cyclical and structural factors.
Standard Bank analyst Steve Barrow said that although the third quarter performed well, the latest data is not so encouraging. The data in September was not too strong, and the National Bureau of Statistics admitted that the economic growth rate in the month fell. The fourth quarter is likely to continue this slowdown, and GDP growth may fall again.
Danish Bank also questioned the persistence of China's economic rebound. The bank said that China's current economic growth rate is higher than its potential level (the bank is expected to be around 8%); because there is no large output gap, the pace of economic recovery is expected to be slow. As the influence of the government's small-scale stimulus policies begins to weaken, the economic growth rate is expected to start to slow down from the beginning of next year (the growth rate will peak in the first quarter of next year). If the growth rate is slower than it is now, the Chinese government may be forced to tighten monetary policy.
Nomura pointed out that the prospects for many indicators of actual economic activity in China have become uncertain. Nomura said that the actual activity index has weakened. The industrial growth rate in September fell to 10.2% from 10.4% in August, in line with market expectations. The growth rate of fixed asset investment fell from 20.3% in August to 20.2%, slightly lower. Expected by the market. Retail sales in September increased by 13.3% year-on-year, lower than expected and lower than 13.4% in August.
Marc Ostwald, strategist at Monument Securities, said that China released its GDP data for only 10 working days after the end of the third quarter. China is a big country with a population of 1.3 billion. In this case, questioning its data. Accuracy makes sense.
From the comments of the above analysts, the GDP performance is quite good. It must be that the old developed countries are far from being able to match this year, but the domestic demand has not improved, and the next few quarters will be insufficient.
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