Conflict between supply and demand steel prices continue to fall

In February, the domestic steel price as a whole maintained a weak downward trend and fell steadily. Due to the significant increase in market arrival during the Spring Festival, traders’ inventory has risen significantly. At the same time, the post-holiday spot market was sluggish, the lack of intermediate demand, slow start-up of downstream operations, and the market turnover was extremely deserted, with only sporadic purchases and merchants shipping poorly. In addition, **, electronic trading and other forward markets have continued to decline, suppressing market confidence, causing some pessimism. Although the prices of billet and other raw materials have risen sharply, they have not effectively stimulated a full recovery of the market. On the whole, under the pressure of inventory, there is not enough impulse energy in the steel market.

Specific to the price, as of February 28, Shanghai 8mmHRB400 plate screw transaction price was 3260 yuan / ton, compared with the previous weekend fell 40 yuan / ton; Ф6.5mmHRB300 high-line transaction price was 3180 yuan / ton, compared to the previous weekend The transaction price of Ф20mmHRB400 rebar was RMB 3,160/ton, which was RMB 30/t lower than that of the previous weekend; the transaction price of 5.5* 1500 PSP was RMB 3,400/ton, which was RMB 30/down from the previous week/ Ton; 1.0*1250 Prairie transaction price of 4220 yuan / ton, compared with the previous weekend fell 10 yuan / ton.

Judging from the market trend, at the beginning of the week, the prices in the forward market fell sharply, the market appeared panic, the mainstream quoted prices were lowered, and downstream purchases slowed down. In the middle of the week, the steel price was slightly stable, but the overall transaction was still very general and failed to stimulate the price to rebound. Near the weekend, rebar ** dive again, resulting in loose market makers offer price, prices continue to fall. At the same time, the steel mills were under pressure from the order organization and the factory prices fell collectively.

For the next week's trend, the author believes that the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term and lack of market confidence will lead to steel prices are difficult to get out of the current weak market.

First, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the pressure on inventory is heavy. Since the Spring Festival, the major domestic steel markets have been under pressure from rapid inventories and the market has soared in the short term. Although the port arrivals have gradually become normal, the growth of inventories in major markets has slowed down, and due to the drop in spot prices, the willingness of steel producers to reduce production has led to a significant drop in crude steel production. However, the current over 20 million tons of social stocks and more than 17 million tons of steel inventories, will greatly restrain the rebound of steel prices, forcing the steel price down. On the demand side, at the current stage, there are no market speculation factors, the middle demand is sluggish, and the downstream terminals have weak willingness and ability to receive goods. There is no sign of obvious recovery in demand. In the short term, the contradiction between the supply and demand of the steel market is very prominent, and the weak demand will lead to a longer period of inventory digestion.

Second, lack of policy guidance, lack of market confidence. First of all, there have recently been market rumors that due to tight funding, banks have restricted loans and suspended loans to real estate and related industries (such as steel, cement, etc.). Although the banks subsequently denied it, they caused a significant negative impact on the steel market. Trader optimism. Second, the credit crisis persisted. In addition to parts of eastern China, Guangdong, Shandong, and even some of the northeastern provinces and cities, this year, the issue of steel trade credit broke out, causing market confidence to be frustrated, and the good outlook for the market outlook was reduced. Third, although environmental protection policies have limited the production of steel plants to a certain extent, they have also exerted pressure on some downstream end-users, making simultaneous use of steel demand impaired. In the situation where the contradiction between the supply and demand of the fundamentals is difficult to understand and the funding is everywhere, the market urgently needs to be encouraged and guided by the policy.

In general, the increase in the price of billet and other raw materials, in addition to providing a certain cost support, failed to effectively promote the price increase in the finished material market. At present, most traders are more observant and wait-and-see. Steel prices will remain in a weak and volatile situation in the short term, and there is little room for growth.