Last week (1206-1212) increased the product: ethylene (Korea FOB), 7.0%; propylene (Korea FOB), 2.5%; natural rubber (standard glue 1#, East China), 2.5%; Henry Hub natural gas, 2.4 %; Polypropylene (Blow Molding, Yangtze River Delta), 2.2%.
Products with greater declines this week: ** (Shandong), -33.3%; methyl ethyl ketone (East China), -12.8%; soda ash (light, East China), -11.1%; dimethyl ether (Hubei Tianmao), -8.0 %; soft foam polyether (East China), -8.0%.
The high oil price fluctuated and related products rose. This week, the international crude oil prices remained at a high level and the prices of WTI, Brent and Dubai were reported at 87.79, 90.16, and 88.90 US dollars/barrel respectively. Under the high oil prices, the prices of overseas triene and natural gas products continued to rise, and domestic polyethylene, etc. Plastic products are also strong. The price of ethylene in South Korea rose by 7% to US$1140/ton this week.
Domestic basic raw materials continue to fall. This week domestic methanol, acetic acid, ethylene oxide, propylene oxide, methyl ethyl ketone and other basic raw materials continue to fall, but did not follow the simultaneous rise in oil prices, mainly due to two points, one is that most of the current products are in demand off-season, near the end of the year The attitude of dealers was generally cautious, and the market volume was light; second, the supply and demand relationship was distorted due to the previous period of limited energy production, and there were amendment requirements after the price of products rose substantially. Accompanied with this, adipic acid and other intermediate products, soda ash, and chemical fiber products also have a greater decline, including adipic acid fell 4.2% to 19,400 yuan / ton; methyl ethyl ketone fell 12.8% to 14,300 yuan / ton, light soda ash It fell 11.1% to 1,600 yuan/ton.
The price of domestic nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers fell, and the transaction progressed slowly. The impact of export tariffs is still continuing. After short-term export disruption, enterprises choose to reduce prices. The urea market price in Jiangsu this week dropped by RMB 100/tonne to RMB 1,950/tonne, while the price in other areas also decreased by RMB 50/tonne. , but the dealers are still mainly wait and see (for the first reason is that urea prices are higher year-on-year this year, and secondly, the high and low urea market trend before 2009 made many dealers and farmers unable to rush to sell), the volume has not been significantly enlarged (It is reported that the psychological price of dealers in some regions is at 1,850 yuan/ton), and some manufacturers recently chose strategic parking to cope with the current situation. We believe that under the cost support, the downside of urea is relatively limited, and there is still a certain gap in the use of spring plows. After the sales volume, corporate earnings are expected to gradually move towards normal.
The situation of phosphate fertilizer was slightly better. Although the prices of raw materials such as ** and synthetic ammonia (including urea) also fell, the price of diammonium fell only slightly and remained basically stable, mainly due to the shortage of wagons and difficulties in supplying phosphate rock (mining in winter). Mining), the current market turnover of diammonium is better than urea, but some dealers are still waiting to see.
Short-term investment perspective: Most domestic chemicals are still in a downtrend this week. Although the high international oil price shocks support some product costs, most of the products are in the off-season demand, while the previous energy-saving production limit has caused the price to rise sharply. The price correction is also normal. On the whole, we are bullish on commodities: 1) Agrochemical sectors with better downstream growth prospects (especially pesticides, potash fertilizers, and phosphorus chemical sub-sectors that are less affected by export tariff adjustments), and 2) benefiting from higher cotton prices Some of the chemical fiber industry, including bamboo pulp fiber, polyester staple fiber, 3) the industry leader whose growth prospects are underestimated by the market.
Products with greater declines this week: ** (Shandong), -33.3%; methyl ethyl ketone (East China), -12.8%; soda ash (light, East China), -11.1%; dimethyl ether (Hubei Tianmao), -8.0 %; soft foam polyether (East China), -8.0%.
The high oil price fluctuated and related products rose. This week, the international crude oil prices remained at a high level and the prices of WTI, Brent and Dubai were reported at 87.79, 90.16, and 88.90 US dollars/barrel respectively. Under the high oil prices, the prices of overseas triene and natural gas products continued to rise, and domestic polyethylene, etc. Plastic products are also strong. The price of ethylene in South Korea rose by 7% to US$1140/ton this week.
Domestic basic raw materials continue to fall. This week domestic methanol, acetic acid, ethylene oxide, propylene oxide, methyl ethyl ketone and other basic raw materials continue to fall, but did not follow the simultaneous rise in oil prices, mainly due to two points, one is that most of the current products are in demand off-season, near the end of the year The attitude of dealers was generally cautious, and the market volume was light; second, the supply and demand relationship was distorted due to the previous period of limited energy production, and there were amendment requirements after the price of products rose substantially. Accompanied with this, adipic acid and other intermediate products, soda ash, and chemical fiber products also have a greater decline, including adipic acid fell 4.2% to 19,400 yuan / ton; methyl ethyl ketone fell 12.8% to 14,300 yuan / ton, light soda ash It fell 11.1% to 1,600 yuan/ton.
The price of domestic nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers fell, and the transaction progressed slowly. The impact of export tariffs is still continuing. After short-term export disruption, enterprises choose to reduce prices. The urea market price in Jiangsu this week dropped by RMB 100/tonne to RMB 1,950/tonne, while the price in other areas also decreased by RMB 50/tonne. , but the dealers are still mainly wait and see (for the first reason is that urea prices are higher year-on-year this year, and secondly, the high and low urea market trend before 2009 made many dealers and farmers unable to rush to sell), the volume has not been significantly enlarged (It is reported that the psychological price of dealers in some regions is at 1,850 yuan/ton), and some manufacturers recently chose strategic parking to cope with the current situation. We believe that under the cost support, the downside of urea is relatively limited, and there is still a certain gap in the use of spring plows. After the sales volume, corporate earnings are expected to gradually move towards normal.
The situation of phosphate fertilizer was slightly better. Although the prices of raw materials such as ** and synthetic ammonia (including urea) also fell, the price of diammonium fell only slightly and remained basically stable, mainly due to the shortage of wagons and difficulties in supplying phosphate rock (mining in winter). Mining), the current market turnover of diammonium is better than urea, but some dealers are still waiting to see.
Short-term investment perspective: Most domestic chemicals are still in a downtrend this week. Although the high international oil price shocks support some product costs, most of the products are in the off-season demand, while the previous energy-saving production limit has caused the price to rise sharply. The price correction is also normal. On the whole, we are bullish on commodities: 1) Agrochemical sectors with better downstream growth prospects (especially pesticides, potash fertilizers, and phosphorus chemical sub-sectors that are less affected by export tariff adjustments), and 2) benefiting from higher cotton prices Some of the chemical fiber industry, including bamboo pulp fiber, polyester staple fiber, 3) the industry leader whose growth prospects are underestimated by the market.
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